Thursday, 10 December 2009

  • Economic depression; 7 fat years, and 7 lean years

    For as long as our president will borrow money from other nations and lend money, the economy will be soothed and less hard when a depression hits.
    But one thing our leaders have not realized is that whenever the economy goes well, they supposed to pay back the debt they've accumulated by borrowing when times where tough!
    So far in an economy that goes well, no money (or little money) is lended; never thinking about the day they have to pay it all in full back. The amount of money that is lended in a bad economic time is huge.

    For as long as the president and congress keep their eyes turned from their public debt, our economy will run like it usually does.
    The moment no more money can be lended, and the value of the dollar ends up being rockbottom, then we'll need to start paying back those huge numbers of money, regardless if the economy goes well or not well.

    The world's not going to end in 2012(most likely), but USA could very well be a country in so much debt that it will have difficulty in existing.
    Those who'll have money at that time,will move to other lands, and those who don't will have to remain in a country carrying the burden of debt our fathers and forefathers have left them with.

    A great example of lending and not looking to debt, is Greece. The country of the European Union with the largest public debt as far as I know. A recent article showed that the whole world might have felt the aftershocks of this economic depression, save for Greece. Now that they start investigating, and Greece starts to look at it's public debt, for the first time (almost a year after the depression) it starts to feel the depression, by a decrease in economic growth of about 6%! (or something like that).
    The truth is that there is no country save for china that has kept itself without debt.
    China is less affected by the economy because it does not base it's economy on gold, but on silver. Most other western countries have left their goldline around the 1940's (after WW2) and printed more money then they had gold.
    This lead to a temporal wealth appeal, but also to great debts. Debts that the devaluation of the local currency can not recover!
    On average a devaluation of 1 to 2% of a currency is normal per year. The US dollar has devaluated almost double of that. And even with the devaluation of the currency, our debt is still increasing, not decreasing. This means they are lending more than they are paying back by devaluation of money.
    And 1 to 2% of GDP is a HUGE sum of money!!!

    If you'd ask me, the American economy is going down again very soon. Wise people need to learn from this economic depression, and start to save up!
    This economic depression has lasted almost 2 years, and we'll see after january if it falls back into a slump or not. But my estimation is that it will!
    Wise people will lay down a cent to the side, raise up a savings account.
    Or invest their money in gold (rings chains or pure gold logs), or in properties (houses,but refrain from going into a too expensive or big mortgage).

    Now's the time to start thinking about getting rid of debt, forever, destroy our debit cards, and have a small saving of a couple of thousand dollars for emergencies always ready!


    Doing so,they will secure themselves a smoother transition in an upcoming economic slump. But as a contradiction, they will not have enough money to support an economic growth. If enough people will start saving up, paying back their debts in full, and grow in properties or have more gold, there will be no money going into the economy like cars, technology, clothing, etc....

    We are in a time where we should learn from Joseph, the favorite son of Jacob sent to Egypt! 7 fat years and 7 lean years.
    Harvest, and store in storehouses now! Invest in something that is sure.
    Don't end up having nothing when future hardships strike you!

    Gold is getting more and more expensive these days! Noone knows weather it will go down one day, but most likely it won't.
    And even if it does go down in value, it's nothing compared to a dollar which constantly goes down in value. Basically if you have a $1000 on a savings account,that $1000 should stand for $1000 worth of gold. But because of devaluation, within a couple of years, you only have $900 worth of gold. And the interest you get from banks hardly covers the devaluation of the money.
    As a 'money lender' we supposed to earn money, because we 'lend' or 'trust' our money to the banks. Instead banks don't pay us interest on it, their interest is barely enough to cover the devaluation of the dollar.
    So some people invest in buying gold, which does not devaluates, and is the absolute reference of most of the currencies of the world.
    If the dollar loses strength, gold goes up. If the dollar gains strength, gold prices go down. If the euro goes up and the dollar goes down often it could be 3 scenario's:
    1- Compared to gold, the euro really goes up, and the dollar really goes down in value.
    2- The euro really goes up, and the dollar goes up too, but not as much as the euro.
    3- The euro goes down, but the dollar goes down more.

    From comparing the dollar to the euro, we can not see which of the 3 is the right case.
    With gold we can.

    So it is wisest to invest in something that devalues not, like gold.

    But something is telling me to be careful with Gold; the fact that it's value is so high right now. And even gold is depending on consumer demand!
    When the gold price goes up too much, people will be afraid to purchase it!
    Demand will drop, and gold will lower in price.
    Other investors, will see this, and sell their gold,in order to keep some sort of profit, before gold goes down even more.
    And such a trend can go very fast!
    In a matter of weeks or a couple of months, gold can go from 1000 per pound to 800 with ease, and even lower than that on the long run!
    True that since the '70's the demand for gold has risen, and therefor the price of gold has risen.
    A bad thing about gold is that you can do absolutely nothing with it! You can't comb your hair with it, can't play computer games on it, it can't even bring you to work!
    You can only wear it as jewelry, or save it in a vault.
    And the other thing that can only happen to gold when you own it,is, it can get lost or stolen!

    God has not spoken to me directly in what's going to happen to the American economy; but if we follow the pattern of the times,
    we can expect that this recession might take about another 5months after which things will relatively stabilize.
    It would take probably 6months for the housing to go up again, and a 7 months for jobs to become available again. IT's only an estimation on my part, by no means a definite conclusion.
    It'd take 9-12months for most americans to forget about this depression, and for them to continue their debt and debit card lending.
    This is good for the economy, but also puts them at risk whenever the next economic depression strikes, and there will be a next economic depression FOR SURE!
    We don't know much about it; most likely it will be a harder one than this one we just had, but noone really knows yet.
    The economy has always gone in cycles, and we're getting close to having more cycles, more frequently, more groaning of the people more frequently, and stronger.

    If you look at the signs of the times, get ready for those of you who understand them!

    Get rid of your debt! Save up (in gold, or money). If you buy yourself a house,and engage in a mortgage, make sure you calculate within the price, if your partner loses a job for 6 months, if you can still pay the bills!
    Your total rent or mortgage payback should normally not exceed 30% of your combined wage!
    This has already become impossible lately, but it should enable you to save up, and redefine your loan a couple of years down the road!
    Like this, by the last 5 to 10 years of your mortgage, you can pay whatever you have saved,and can skip the interest of those years!

    Don't go purchasing your first home at the maximum of your combined income!
    Go small! The smallest you can! And once you've payed back your smaller cheaper home, then start thinking about a bigger home!
    Sell your first house or use it as down payment for the bigger one you always wanted!
    People grow in steps. Be faithful with little and if you are, more will be entrusted to you!

    But don't go buying castles when you know they're hardly affordable, especially when one partner loses his or her job.

Friday, 04 December 2009

  • Obama VS Hitler

    I remember someone one day said that there are many likenesses between Obama and Hitler.

    I thought to myself, not only between Obama and Hitler, but between Germany of then, and USA of the now too!
    Germany was in an economic depression, and Hitler promised that he would change that.
    Doing so he called any German to the war. Many where killed. Hitler also promised a car for every German.

    Obama is kind of like this. In the list of hundreds of character traits and offices, background checks and all that stuff, it came to me that Obama sent a lot of soldiers to the warzone too!
    Obama promises progress too!
    Obama had given the cash for clunkers program, but it would surprise me if we get into an oil crisis, that he'd promise an electric car for every US citizen!
    That would be the drop in the bucket, that would makeme believe Obama would be Hitler 2.

    In any case, Obama is not a racist, like Hitler. If he was, he would be one of 'equality', and anyone who think outside of the 'all people are equal' phrase are not tolerated...

    All men are created equal, but not all men are equal.
    Therefor you can not rule or reign over,or command all people in the same way.

Saturday, 28 November 2009

  • Be heavenly minded, not earthly minded.

    This is a reply to a topic concerning an event called 'Black Friday', which is known in asia, and came all the way to USA, as a shopping day.
    It is an event to encourage people to purchase, and often shops are offering discounts.:


    If you can get a great deal on something that you need (like I need a new laptop for my old one died halfway, has no battery, and needs a new harddrive), then I'd say if the deal is there on black friday, go for it.
    But it does not have to do with this salesday. If that same deal would be gotten (eg: 30% off) on a regular weekday, and you need it, well, purchase it then!

    I'm not about shopping on 'Black Friday' because everyone else does!

    As long as you know how to handle your money, save up about 10% of your combined wage for unexpected events, save up between 5 to 10% for your retirement, give 10% to God, you still have 70% of your money to spend.

    You may say "with 70% of my wage, I can't even pay rent!", well, then it's time for you to move!
    I was brought up that 30% of your wage, and no more should go to rent!
    Because of the increase in the amount of people in our country (due to immigration and higher birth than death rate), the housing became more expensive.
    Right now, if you can find a house where less than 50% of your combined wage goes to rent, you're good. Preferably 50% to rent, water, electricity and gas if you have gas.
    That way, in case a person loses his wage, you'll not lose your house.

    To be good, you need 30% of your combined wage in rent. That means most likely living in a small apartment,or condo instead of a large house.

    There are many people cutting on cost like in:
    doctor appointments,
    insurance
    dentist appointments
    car mechanic appointments
    to save money, just because they don't have that money, which they prioritize on constant other bills.

    A lot of 'not having the money' could be prevented by NOT buying what you don't need, like clothes, yet another computer, an overly expensive car...!
    Carefully calculate the 'what you get for the buck' ratio.
    Often purchasing food in larger doses saves you some bucks.
    Not always is the most expensive, the best. It does not always last the longest neither.
    In everything there is a sweet spot.
    Most clothes, tshirts, pants, go for $20 per piece. Cheaper, and you'll have clothes that either lose color, or fabric over time too fast. More, and you pay too much for design.

    Cars go for between 15.000 and 20.000. Less and you might purchase a car that can give you trouble, although lately some 13.000 cars are pretty decent too!
    More and you pay too much for brand or extra gadgets.

    Purchase according to your income. Purchase what you have saved, and prefer to not commit to a loan in order to get something.
    When you purchase something and engage into a loan, know fully well the consequences if something goes wrong like losing a job, and thus, losing the object you purchased!

    Same goes for rent! Renting a house (as much as purchasing a house), you commit to a monthly fee.
    Make sure you have something set aside in case something goes wrong.


    When was the last time you purchased clothes, because most clothes you had where worn out, and not because you had a closet full of clothes, and just wanted something different?

    Are we really happy with the way we are, and who we are?

    As Christians we should not overly focus on our earthly possessions, but our eternal possessions! Only get more earthly stuff, if you are wanting to help or give more earthly stuff!

    The value of the person lies within, not without.
    "The clothes make the man" is often said... In this you can see how superficial most people are.
    The man makes the clothes! And I don't mean a textile worker, I mean, the man that is formed in his mind and heart, will develop a characteristic that his dressing code does not matter, for he is established because of his knowledge and wisdom.
    If such a man would show up in a tshirt and sweater and jeans, or in a swimming short, instead of a suit, true people will be able to distinguish what is important. His counseling and advice, his friendship, or his outward appearance?

    So instead of looking to be like a model, work out the character and person within to improve yourself!
    Perhaps once you gain enough strength from within, it will start showing from the outside!

    I've seen plenty of people spending more time working on their appearance, but when you talk to them, they are friendly, but very shallow.
    I know there are a lot of people out there, who would do better with working on their inner person, than on their outer person.

    Eternal things are more important than temporary things.
    Love remains, all the rest will fade:

    1 cor 13:8
    "8Love never fails; but if there are gifts of prophecy, they will be done away; if there are tongues, they will cease; if there is knowledge, it will be done away."

    Mat 6:
    "19"Do not store up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy, and where thieves break in and steal. 20But store up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where moth and rust do not destroy, and where thieves do not break in and steal. 21For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. "

    Be focused on the things that are eternal, which you can not lose!
    Focus on these eternal things, and give them the right priority!
    Your life with God matters more than your life with people!

    Love God above anything and anyone, and then love your neighbors as you love yourself!
  • Rising sealevel theory not 100% correct

    I've been thinking about this a while, the melting polar caps and the ice,
    and it is a big hoax.
    Those who know about water, know that Water reaches it's most dense form when it's 4 degrees Celsius, or 39,3 degrees Fahrenheit.

    So what actually happens is the snow and ice caps above the sea are melting, and going into the ocean, bringing more water in the ocean,making the ocean to rise in water level.
    That was the logic of some of the scientists
    At the same time the ice under the ocean (often there's more ice under water than above) is melting too.
    As long as the ice is not rising above 4 degrees C on the poles, the water will actually shrink in size, becoming more dense.

    This means that the ocean temperature between the poles and the equator will be a little warmer in temperature.
    For as long as there is the slightest snow on the poles, there is no problem or fear about rising sea levels.
    Besides, the hotter the ocean gets, the more water will evaporate, the more clouds will appear, the more the temperature will drop.

    What we'll be expecting is more heavy rains, more storms, etc; but no signs of rising water levels; at least not to the extend of what the latest Al Gore preachings have made us believe.

    In history it is known that the winters used to be colder in the North, and that the waterlevels where higher.
    I remember as a kid I used to live near to a swamp,which my grandmother used to tell me there used to be boats floating on that swamp.
    When I visited the swamp as a kid, it hardly had 1 foot of water at best.
    Currently it's a muddy to dry area most of the year.

    I do believe that water levels can return to their previous state, but not because of global warming.
    If anything, global warming only causes gasses to be more active, and perhaps in the upper atmosphere have more hydro oxygen escape the earth's atmosphere.

    I read somewhere that earth continuously is bombarded with photons from the sun, while at the same time it continuously loses millions of gallons of water per year...
    This in itself creates a balance. While sunrays actually are ADDING to the earth's mass, the gasses in the most outter layers of the atmosphere are actually being sent into space.
    I don't know how far this theory is proven scientifically though.

    This latter could also explain why there is water found on the moon.
    As these gasses leave earth's orbit, no longer being bound by earth's gravity, they are caught into the moon's field of gravity. The moon does not have an atmosphere, and water, in the form of microscopic ice particles (literally frozen gas) land on the moon's surface, and sink into it's sandy bottom.
    That is most likely why scientists of Nasa recently discovered water in the moon's soil; although, be it round about 7 gallons of water in an amount of soil as large as a cloud created by a 100kTon of TNT explosion.

    The catch is when the seawater will rise above 4 degrees C, or about 40 degrees F, that water expands. Watermasses at quantities of an ocean could rise rapidly, but the tolerance built in it is quite large!
    Put a cup of water in the freezer, and the water will have a much lower density in a frozen state (thus take up a much larger area) than in a heated state (relative the same temperature difference as frozen water from 4 degrees C, or 40 F).
    eg: Fill a cup with water,and freeze it to -18 degrees C (or 0 F). The frozen water will actually pass the border of the cup by several millimeters.
    Heat up that cup, and usually unless you are heating up the water in temperatures close to boiling temperatures, the cup will not overflow (unless if filled to the absolute maximum possible, with the water level already being higher than the cup's border).

    So unless the ocean will start rising by 10 to 25 degrees C (~20-45 degrees F) or more, we probably won't have to worry much; and even then, the increase in size will most likely be compensated for by an increase in cloud formation.

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

  • Last post confirmed by 'opposition' :)

    Today Barton Biggs was introduced on the Charlie Rose show.

    See the show here:
    http://www.charlierose.com/

    Barton Biggs is a prime advocate of President Obama, and well trained in world economics.
    Despite his stance for the president, he is aware of many who have chosen for the opposite party. Many things what he said during the interview in some way I mentioned in my last post of "wealth transfer of the nations".

    One thing he mentions is that the economy is going "...sideways; it's no longer going down...". In my mind that's a clear indicator we have reached a new plateau or level.
    The way things are, many people are still not aware of the seriousness of the economy.
    People are still losing jobs, still losing money in the long term, there are still those whose houses are getting sold due to foreclosure.
    And on average, the average american has gotten the clue,
    It's time to save, it's time to get out of debt! This mentality will cause a further slow in the economy, and is the major reason why the economy hasn't recovered as fast as it was expected to in the past months!

    "Unemployment rate is decreasing", which is bull shit! Sure, there is no growth anymore in unemployment checks, because people are only eligible to receive those checks for an X amount of months! The amount of new requests probably equals the amount of cancels due to no longer eligible for unemployment benefits.
    But to solely base the unemployment figure on the amount of requests of checks, is hilarious! That's what the president and the economists are trying to push to let the leek believe! Give the market some faith is what they say; Nay! Let the market crash completely rockbottom, and start from there!
    That's the only way to have a growing economy. Not from stimulus packages to keep it going!
    The market much reacts like a fever. Let fever rise high, don't cool a sick person by medicine (unless they have over 107 fever). They will recover, but if you constantly cool him, the disease will last longer!

    He also confirms that the European economy is more stable, and the SE Asian economy (mostly Chinese economy) is growing.

    The Chinese economy as a demand driven economy will also help the Chinese wages to be raised, and balancing out the cheaper labor force of over there, and help return economies to USA and the Western world.

    I disagree with his statement of USA and technology. Technology is transferred so much faster these days thanks to the internet.
    I don't think there's one nation that will solely enjoy technological advances!
    Whatever gets invented in USA is available on the Asian markets within 6 to 12 months!

    But perhaps he showed me that there is more optimism on the global market than feared! The economic depression will take a longer time, but not as long as I may have suspected! It is technically possible that within a year or two companies will start returning to USA, due to too small price differences between Asian,and Western products (of the Western market,aka USA, Canada, and Europe).
    So there is some optimism in the future, however, with the rising gas prices and a rising economy again,I think the future issues will be much like Europe, in that gas prices will indicate a lot of a company's expenses.

ProDigit

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    • Name: ProDigit
    • Birthday: 5/26/1980
    • Gender: Male
    • Member Since: 10/31/2009

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